
The Middle East after Coronavirus
NDCF-EGIC Joint Webinar – April 21, 2020, Zoom Platform
Speakers:
- Lina Aburous, Managing Director, Strategy, Euraffex
- Ahmed Elbaz, Director, Early Warning Centre, UAE
- Oded Eran, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for National Security Studies
- Umberto Profazio, Maghreb Analyst, NATO Defense College Foundation
Moderator: Mitchell Belfer, President, Euro-Gulf Information Centre (EGIC)
Summary
Main points
- The pandemic could lead to a de-globalised world. This was a debated issue because tendencies to have national solutions are evident, but links between supply chains are very strong. In the end it appears that globalisation in commerce and economy will continue, but the imposition of the Washington consensus will be increasingly challenged in the region. It could be watershed for global North and South in uniting against virus and neoliberalism.
- EU has been weakened in its role by two problems: 1) the absence of political leadership; 2) the lack of consistency between values declared in the conditionalities attached to regional assistance and the values applied in the migrant issue (e.g. Libyan detention centres) and among EU Member States during the sanitary pandemic emergency.
- The crisis could be a springboard for more collaboration among different sub-regions of the ME, but only under strong political impulsion. It will also favour violent non-state actors and militias, weakening states.
- The crisis will have serious economic consequences: I) revenues drop in energy, tourism, migrants’ remittances, etc.; II) less FDI; III) improbable foreign acquisitions of local assets; IV) lower support from Gulf countries to Lebanon and Jordan; V) additional negative effects on Iran’s economy (reason why borders are open between South Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran, despite virus containment measures).
- Concerning internal stability the evaluations were divided. In the Gulf area and Egypt it seems that there will be no further mass protests, not so in North Africa, especially regarding Algeria. All countries blocked public religious functions and this in time could cause unrest, if a normalisation comes too late. Despite the crisis being relatively easy (all essential infrastructures and food supply chains function), the consequences of it, in conjunction with the Arab Revolutions’ effects, will linger on the region.
- The Libyan conflict continues unabated while China, Turkey and Russia are continuing to make inroads due to the US retreat and the EU paralysis.
- The military experience and cooperation between Egypt, Jordan and Israel has been positive and could be a model to extend to other sectors.
PAST ACTIVITIES
Talk About Crude. Fluctuating Oil and COVID-19 (Joint Webinar)
Zoom, 3 June, 2020
The Middle East after Coronavirus (Joint Webinar)
Zoom – 21 April, 2020
Confronting Criminal/Terrorist Threats. The reshaping of non-state actors
Rome – 9 December, 2019
Arab Geopolitics after the Caliphate.
How to exit the fragmentation trap
Rome – 9 October, 2019
Book Presentation “Shaping Security Horizons. Strategic Trends (2012-2019)”
Rome – 15 July, 2019
NATO at 70: Refocusing for Change?
Washington D.C. – 27 June, 2019
Balkan Perspectives – Adapting the partnership and integration paths
Rome – 16 May, 2019
Targeting the de-materialised “Caliphate”. Extremism, radicalisation and illegal trafficking
Rome – 6 December, 2018
Book presentation “I Balcani occidentali al bivio. La NATO, KFOR e il ruolo dell’Italia”
Rome – 17 October, 2018
Afghanistan and Central Asia: Looming priorities and regional un-balances
Rome – 4 October 2018
NATO versus the new global threats
Rome – 15 June 2018
Africa in Action: Tailoring security to real needs and threats
Rome – 8-9 May 2018
Book presentation “PEACEMAKERS. American Leadership and the End of Genocide in the Balkans”
Rome – 12 March 2018
The Western Balkans at a Crossroads
Rome – 6-7 December 2017
Arab Geopolitics from Turmoil – Balances, Stability and Regional Order
Rome – 5-6 October 2017
Is NATO indispensable?
The Brussels Summit
Rome – 18 May 2017
Balkan Networks and Stability
Rome – 6-7 April 2017
Book Presentation
EMERGENZA LIBIA
Rome – 7 December 2016
Deep Maghreb: (in)security and stability – North Africa and its Sahel dimension
Rome – 30 November 2016
CBRN Risks in Maritime and Land Containers Transport
Rome – 25-27 May 2016
NATO in a world of disorder
Rome – 25 May 2016
Arab Geopolitics in Turmoil
Rome – 25-26 February 2016
Eurasia and armed radicalism
Berlin – 27 January 2016
NATO Summit 2016 Advisory Panel meeting
Rome – 25 September 2015
The shaping of Eastern Europe
Rome – 18-19 May 2015
The futures of integration
Rome – 7-8 October 2014
Game changers
Rome – 13-14 February 2014
Afghanistan to 2014 and beyond
Rome – 7-8 February 2013
NATO and the Arab Spring
Rome – 17-18 November 2011