Strategic Autonomy

Triggered by the new Gulf war, international arms transfers are increasing, surpassing record highs driven by the conflict in Ukraine and the crisis in the Middle East. The changing character of warfare, represented by Iran’s asymmetric threat and drone attacks against its Arab neighbours, is pushing demand for modern air defence systems, particularly in Gulf states affected by Tehran’s retaliation. Western military equipment continues to have the lion’s share of the Gulf states’ arms imports, due to a long-standing defensive partnership. The UK for instance has announced it was sending its Sky Sabre short-range air defence system to Saudi Arabia in March. The system, comprising a radar, a control node and missile launchers, was to be integrated into Saudi and regional air defences.

Nevertheless, new producers are entering the lucrative arms market of the Gulf region, where petro-monarchies are looking for strategic autonomy. Most of these states want to diversify weapons supplies away from traditional defence partners, which have proved time and again unable to provide security. The US, for example, has struggles to fully shield its regional partners from Iranian drones and missiles. Furthermore, the unsustainable asymmetry of the conflict with Tehran (which is forcing the use of expensive missiles to counter cheap drones) has quickly depleted the US’ military’s most critical munitions, including advanced air interceptors such as the Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems. This is forcing Washington to consider diverting military aid to other countries such as Ukraine. 

It is no coincidence that Kyiv has been among the most interested parties in bolstering the Gulf’s air defences, for fear of losing the critical support of the US in its defence against Russian aggression. In his visit to Manama on 4-5 May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pitched a drone deal to the Foreign Minister of Bahrain Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani. This follows 10-year defence cooperation agreements signed in March with Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), after a regional tour that laid the foundations for Ukraine’s inroads in the military procurement of the region. Kyiv has also dispatched more than 200 experts, offering battle-tested systems and extensive know-how in countering Iranian drones often supplied to Moscow.

Sensing an opportunity, Zelensky has been quick to capitalise on the Gulf’s security needs, overturning years of diplomatic estrangement due to the non-alignment adopted by local partners after Russia invaded Ukraine. Filling the gap with interceptor drones and electronic warfare systems produced by Ukrainian companies such as Phantom Defense, SkyFall and Wild Hornets would help defend and protect critical infrastructure more effectively such as oil fields and facilities in the Gulf, avoiding a potential rerouting of modern air defence systems and interceptors that would be detrimental to NATO’s efforts to keep defending Ukraine. It would also open new markets to Ukrainian defence companies, providing much-needed revenues that could balance Kyiv’s budget in times of uncertain support from its Western allies.

In the end, the move could reinforce the strategic autonomy of Ukraine, turning it from a victim of Russia’s aggression into an indispensable defence partner that is becoming increasingly assertive in recent times. In different conflict theatres, Kyiv has certainly been more proactive lately, moving against Russia’s shadow fleet in the Mediterranean Sea and Moscow’s interests in Africa as well. The offensive in the Gulf has so far been limited in scope to arms exports only, where Ukraine however will face stiff competition from traditional defence partners in the West and newcomers alike. Türkiye, which is just finalising the transfer of 20 air defence systems to Iraq following its Saha defence show in Istanbul, is just a case in point.