January-February 2026
Strategic Trends
Defence Diplomacy at Sea: A Practical Pathway for NATO–GCC Cooperation in the Hybrid Era
K. Alexander – L.J.M. Mazzucco
As hybrid threats reshape the global security landscape, traditional alliance models are increasingly inadequate to manage risks below the threshold of armed conflict – particularly in the maritime domain. For NATO and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), defence diplomacy provides a practical response to this challenge.
More info.
Mitigating Foreign Influence in South Africa: Openings for NATO’s Pragmatic Resilience Toolkit
K. Ryabchiy
South Africa’s democratic openness, combined with developmental ambition and diplomatic reach, creates opportunities but also heightens exposure to foreign influence. These vulnerabilities align with NATO’s concerns over the grey zone, where influence and coercion operate just below the threshold of war or crisis.
More info.
Under The Radar
Saad Hariri and the Future Movement
Saad Hariri is hinting at a possible political comeback in Lebanon with the upcoming May general election providing a potential platform for his return after a four-year absence, as he seeks to revive his Future Movement party and reassert influence in a fragmented Sunni political landscape.
The New Arab
Kuwait and Iraq over maritime dispute
Saudi Arabia has rejected Iraq’s submission to the UN outlining new maritime boundaries, arguing that the proposed coordinates infringe on Kuwait’s sovereignty and affect areas jointly managed by Riyadh and Kuwait, where resource rights are governed by binding bilateral agreements.
Arab News
Middle East Strikes Shake Energy Markets
A wave of strikes linked to escalating Iran related tensions has forced major energy shutdowns across the Middle East, disrupting global oil and gas supply chains. Qatar halted LNG production while Saudi Arabia shut parts of the Ras Tanura refinery after a drone strike.
Reuters
China Eliminates Tariffs For 53 African Nations
China has announced it will eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African countries starting May 1, 2026, in a sweeping trade policy shift designed to deepen economic cooperation and open Beijing’s vast market to African exports.
The African Post
UNSC condemns RSF attacks in Sudan’s Kordofan
The UN Security Council has voiced deep concern over escalating violence in Sudan, urging an immediate ceasefire and condemning attacks on civilians and humanitarian workers. The war continues to fuel mass displacement and famine risks.
Al Jazeera
New Blended Threats in West Africa
The spread of synthetic drugs in West Africa shows illicit markets contribute in the Sahel to blended threats outpacing weak governments through state actors’ interference and non state organised crime, terrorism and corruption.
Global Initiative
