December 2025 II
Strategic Trends
Iran under pressure
Gulf – Umberto Profazio
The Islamic Republic has been rocked by widespread anti-regime demonstrations since late December. The protests erupted in Tehran before spreading across the country, fuelled mainly by inflation and the skyrocketing cost of living.
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The weaponisation of migrants
Maghreb – Umberto Profazio
The increase in migrant arrivals in Crete in 2025 has occurred amid a diplomatic flare-up between Greece and the authorities in eastern Libya. General Khalifa Haftar may have chosen to look the other way as migrants departed for Crete, to increase pressure on Athens.
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Under The Radar
President Meloni’s official visit to Oman
Italian President of the Council of Ministers Giorgia Meloni paid an official visit to the Sultanate of Oman on the 14th of January, where she met with His Majesty Sultan Haitham bin Tarik. The two sides agreed to work on an action plan (2026-30) to promote bilateral cooperation.
Italian Government
NATO’s CMC visits NATO Mission Iraq
The Chair of the NATO Military Committee (CMC), Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, visited NATO Mission Iraq (NMI) in December. During his visit, the CMC met with the Commander NMI, senior political leadership in the Iraqi government, and the Chief of Defence of Iraq.
NATO
Rising tensions in Aleppo province
Syria’s military will open a civilian evacuation corridor in Aleppo province that has seen a military buildup. This follows clashes in Aleppo city which ended with the evacuation of Kurdish fighters and the government taking control of disputed neighbourhoods.
Associated Press News
Egypt – Qatar Energy Cooperation
Egypt and Qatar signed a memorandum of understanding to boost cooperation in LNG sales and imports. Egypt has been trying to increase its own gas production and diversify import sources to meet its growing energy needs.
Reuters
Muslim Brotherhood Chapters
The United States designated the Lebanese, Jordanian, and Egyptian chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist organisations on the 13th of January. The US administration also designated the groups based on their support for Hamas and Hezbollah.
Le Monde
Developments in disarming Hezbollah
A senior Hezbollah official has warned Lebanon’s government that pressing on with efforts to disarm the group throughout the country would trigger chaos and possibly civil war. Lebanon has pledged to bring all arms in the country under state control.
The Arab Weekly
