June 2026
African Initiative: Russia’s Post-Wagner Influence Goes Local
Following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s 2023 death, Russia’s African footprint split into two tracks: Afrikansky Korpus absorbed Wagner’s military presence, while the lesser known African Initiative embeds pro-Russian narratives inside African civic life through NGOs, journalism schools, and health programmes. In Burkina Faso, the group amplified disinformation linking a dengue outbreak to Western actors, while in Mali it has cultivated influential local bloggers and funded a journalism school whose graduates can be recruited directly into its network. This model of information laundering, recasting external influence as homegrown expertise, is now expanding beyond the Sahel into countries such as Nigeria.
E. G. Montani
OPEC Minus
The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, announced on April 28 and effective May 1, deprives the cartel of its third-largest producer and marks a historic break from a decade of coordination with Russia and other non-OPEC actors. Freed from production quotas, Abu Dhabi is targeting 5 million barrels per day by 2027 to fund its aggressive pivot towards AI and defence technology, in a move that reflects a deepening systemic rivalry with Saudi Arabia spanning Yemen, Sudan and diverging postures towards Iran. Analysts warn the growing fracture could hollow out regional bodies like the GCC, with significant implications for NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood.
U. Profazio
Under The Radar
Lake Chad Becomes Jihadist Battleground
Boko Haram and ISWAP are locked in an escalating territorial war for control of Lake Chad’s islands, funding their operations through extortion that earns ISWAP an estimated $41.5 million annually from local fishing communities. Recent strikes have killed senior ISWAP commanders, though analysts warn such losses have only symbolic impact. The violence has displaced over 3.25 million people across the region, with 8.2 million now in need of humanitarian aid.
ADF
Somaliland President Visits Israel
Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Abdullahi became the first leader of the breakaway territory to visit Israel, months after Tel Aviv became the first UN member state to recognise its independence. The visit comes as Israel reportedly considers a military base in Somaliland, located just south of the strategic Bab el Mandeb Strait, in a move analysts say aims to strengthen its footprint near key shipping lanes.
Middle East Eye
Iraq’s Disarmament Doubts
PM Al-Zaidi has pledged to bring all weapons under state control, with economic pressure mounting after Iraqi oil exports collapsed following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Muqtada Al-Sadr’s decision to dissolve Saraya al-Salam has lent momentum to the effort, while Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba remain defiant. Analysts caution the process will likely be long and complicated, with no clear timeline for implementation.
Al Jazeera
Houthis Renew Red Sea Naval Blockade
On June 8, the Houthis launched two missiles at central Israel as Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time since the April ceasefire, and declared a complete ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea. Yahya Saree framed both moves as part of coordinated action with Iran and the broader Axis of Resistance, citing solidarity with Lebanon, Gaza, and Iraq. The announcement raised renewed concerns over regional stability, coming shortly after the IRGC-Qods Force commander had threatened to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Long War Journal
Gulf States Race to Bypass the Strait of Hormuz
The near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has stranded a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies, forcing Gulf nations to treat pipeline diversification as a matter of economic survival. Saudi Arabia’s existing Red Sea pipeline cushioned its economy, with the IMF projecting 3.1 percent growth in 2026, while Qatar, lacking alternative routes, could see its economy contract by 8.6 percent this year. The UAE and Iraq are also accelerating plans to expand bypass capacity, underscoring how the crisis is redrawing the region’s energy geography.
Arab News
