October 2026
Under The Radar
Why the civil war in Yemen has world governments on edge
Yemen’s civil war has erupted once again, with Houthi fighters making rapid gains along the Red Sea coast and seizing strategically important territory. The offensive has killed hundreds and driven more than 100.000 people from their homes. Backed by Iran, the Houthis are fighting the Saudi and the Yemeni government, turning the country into a battleground for wider regional rivalries. The conflict also threatens global trade: Yemen borders the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a vital shipping chokepoint through which passes around 10% of global trade.
Mali marks independence amid a worsening security crisis
Libya’s rival eastern and Mali’s 66th independence anniversary arrives as JNIM and the Tuareg FLA deepen their operational coordination, successfully disrupting supply routes into Bamako, attacking army camps in central Mali and pushing government forces out of northern positions. With over 400.000 internally displaced and key highways requiring military escorts to function, the junta’s sovereignty rhetoric is increasingly at odds with the reality on the ground, where Africa Corps support has failed to reverse a steadily deteriorating security picture.
The United States Extends AUSSOM Support for Somalia by One Year
Washington has authorized a 12-month drawdown of UN logistical support for AUSSOM in Somalia, delaying the cutoff to January 2027 rather than ending it abruptly at the end of 2026. The extension covers critical services including food, fuel, medical support and transportation for nearly 12.000 peacekeepers across 49 locations, but does not signal a reversal of policy, leaving Somalia, the African Union and international partners racing to identify alternative financing for a mission with no confirmed replacement mechanism.
Lebanese president: Security deal with Israel would be potential prelude to peace
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has told AFP he is open to a security agreement with Israel once IDF troops withdraw, describing it as a potential prelude to an eventual peace deal while stressing that Lebanon cannot jump directly to normalisation. Aoun reiterated that disarming Hezbollah is non-negotiable and that the objective is to do so without confrontation or civil war, while calling for a new international force to replace UNIFIL when its mandate expires. He urged the US, EU and Arab states to support the Lebanese army’s nationwide deployment and told Iran that bilateral relations must be based on non-interference in Lebanese affairs.
Turkey to hand over military base to Iraq
Turkey has agreed to gradually hand over its Bashiqa-Zilkan military base in northern Iraq to the federal government in Baghdad, following a meeting between Erdoğan and PM Al-Zaidi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Established in 2015 amid tensions over Iraqi sovereignty, the base housed up to 600 Turkish soldiers and served primarily as a platform for operations against the PKK. With the PKK’s dissolution in May 2025 removing Ankara’s main justification for its presence, the two sides also agreed to restore full federal authority over the disputed Sinjar region and eliminate the remaining presence of illegal armed groups there.
Trade and connectivity in the Europe-Gulf strategic partnership
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has shown the strategic urgency of strengthening EU-Gulf links. While trade ties are already substantial, initiatives such as the EU-GCC Free Trade Agreement and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor remain largely stalled. The crisis has exposed vulnerabilities in energy and maritime supply routes, underscoring the need to turn short-term fixes, alternative corridors and regional coordination mechanisms into permanent, adequately financed frameworks that can enhance resilience, trade security and long-term connectivity between Europe and the Gulf region.
