A geopolitical shield for the EU

The turmoil caused by the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine is having strong ramifications, exacerbating pre-existing crises and unsolved conflicts. From Iran and Syria to Yemen, the resurgent axis of resistance has multiplied attacks against Western interests, showing solidarity with the Palestinian cause while testing US resolve to maintain a sizable footprint in the Middle East. The network of Iranian proxies and affiliates operating in the region certainly aims at dislodging the US forces from the area. However, their actions invite further military intervention by Western partners, setting the whole region on the path of escalation.

Amid continuing drone strikes, the use of loitering munitions and missile attacks by the Houthi rebels against cargo ships and oil tankers in the Red Sea, the US launched Operation Prosperity Guardian in December 2023, an international maritime security force including more than 20 countries. The mission intends to protect civilian shipping, which has been considerably diverted from the Bab el Mandeb Strait to the Cape of Good Hope due to the risks of an unsafe route in the Red Sea. As a result, higher shipping and insurance premiums increased trade costs, with the prospect of a new global supply chain crunch.

For the time being, Houthis try to strike at ships belonging to countries supporting Israel in the Gaza war or flying Israeli colours, which means that other vessels are generally unmolested. According to Lloyd’s data, tonnage was reduced by half from the 19^th of November till the 29^th of February despite Operation Prosperity Guardian.

Prosperity Guardian being essentially defensive in nature, it has been complemented by the offensive multi-national (UK, USA, Australia, Bahrain, Canada, the Netherlands) Operation Poseidon Archer consisting in air and missile strikes against Houthi missile sites, ammunition depots and command and control centres inside Yemen.

Several observers have raised serious doubts about its effectiveness in deterring and degrading the rebels’ capabilities, judging on their past resilience against Saudi ed Emirati air strikes and on the available arsenals. Since Riyadh was involved 2015 in the Yemeni conflict in Yemen, now it wants to disengage as part of a strategy shift. This explains its reluctance to participate in the new military campaign as it could potentially antagonize the Houthis and disrupt the ongoing rapprochement with Tehran.

By comparison, the new maritime security operation launched by the European Council on 19^th of February 2024 to restore and protect the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf is more in line with the defensive posture of the EU.

With the operational command in Larissa, the new EU Naval Force (EUNAVFOR) Aspides (Shields) will be led by the Greek Commodore Vasileios Gryparis as Operation Commander and by the Italian Rear Admiral Stefano Costantino as Force Commander.  This division of labour was already experimented with the EUNAVFOR MED Operation Irini (Peace). The new mission will also coordinate with EUNAVFOR Atalanta, active since 2008 in the North-Western Indian Ocean against pirate threats.

The renewed efforts of the EU to address security concerns in a crucial trade corridor indicate its willingness to project stability beyond its borders, finally trying to live the promise of a “geopolitical Europe”, made by the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen at the beginning of her mandate in 2019 and more in line with an era of strategic competition. However, the political pitfalls may be serious, especially if they include diverging European views over the Gaza conflict, a war that has still the potential to push the region over the brink.