COP28: UAE leading a complex consensus

The pledge made in the final statement of the UN Conference of the Parties (COP) held in Dubai from the 30^th of November to the 13^th of December 2023 to transition away from fossil fuels was both unprecedented and promising. For the first time since the establishment of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992, all members agreed to mention explicitly the main responsibles of the global warming in an official document. Oil, coal and gas are widely blamed for the increase in global temperatures that has reached record-high levels in 2023: according to data from Copernicus, an EU climate monitoring service, last year was the hottest ever recorded, with average global temperature at 1,48°C above pre-industrial level, an ominous sign considering the El Niño climate cycle that is expected to make an even bigger impact in 2024.

Dire consequences have been felt around the world, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, which, after hosting the COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh last year, was again at centre-stage of climate negotiations, not without controversies. The role of Gulf states, in particular the hosts and Saudi Arabia, was under great scrutiny, given their prominent role in the OPEC+ cartel. Let alone the shifting geopolitics of the region, where the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Abu Dhabi and Riyadh represented another complicating factor for climate negotiations, the conflict of interest of the UAE in organising the COP28 has been pointed out. Since the outset, several objections have been made to the appointment as President of the COP of Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, who also happens to the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC).

Controversies surrounding the presidency of COP28, including remarks by Al-Jaber about the unsustainability of the phase out of the fossil fuels for socio-economic development; and allegations by the BBC that the UAE was using the climate conference to strike oil and gas deals with at least 27 foreign governments, have casted a shadow on the talks in Dubai.

Under increasing pressure from oil-producing countries that opposed any reference to the “phase-out” terminology in the final document and negotiators pushing to limit global heating to 1,5°C according to the 2015 Paris Agreement, Abu Dhabi managed to strike a balance. Alongside the establishment of a loss and damage fund to support climate-vulnerable countries and several financial commitments, the pledge to transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner certainly represent the main tenet of the UAE Consensus.

However, it remains to be seen if this important achievement will remain just a mere pledge or would incentivise members to act swiftly to limit global warming. Reactions from civil society representatives and climate activists have been lukewarm, while the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), which remain on the frontline of the climate catastrophe, expressed disappointment. More importantly, the outcome still offers a lifeline to the fossil fuel industry, by stressing, for example, the importance of new technologies like the carbon capture and storage (CCS), on which oil-producing countries (including Azerbaijan that will host the next COP29 next year) are eager to invest to further slowdown the energy transition.