Endless reconfiguration

The killing of militia leader Abdelghani al-Kikli in Tripoli on the 12^th of May 2025 marks yet another turning point in the protracted civil war that has engulfed Libya since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, pushing the capital to the verge of a potentially dangerous escalation. As a senior figure within the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA), Kikli, commonly known as Ghneiwa, had reportedly been invited to a meeting at the Tikbali military camp, located south of Tripoli, to address unresolved disputes and mend rifts with influential actors aligned with the Government of National Unity (GNU). According to unconfirmed reports, tensions rapidly escalated during the encounter, culminating in an exchange of fire that resulted in Kikli’s assassination.

The elimination of Kikli aligns with the prevailing local dynamics characterised by persistent power struggles and territorial disputes among the armed groups that constitute the fragmented security landscape in and around the Libyan capital. Emerging from the powerful Abu Salim Brigades, once a key component of Tripoli’s militia cartel, the SSA has, since its establishment, entrenched itself within state institutions, serving as a repressive instrument under the authority of GNU Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. Despite this, the group has consistently maintained an ambiguous posture, at times engaging with the rival Libyan National Army (LNA) through its Zawiya branch, reportedly led by Hassan Abu Zariba, who is said to have been appointed interim head of the SSA.

However, it remains unclear what will become of the SSA following its territorial losses in Abu Salim at the hands of its principal rivals, several of whom were reportedly present at the meeting in the Tikbali military camp where Kikli was assassinated. In the ongoing reconfiguration of Tripoli’s militia landscape, Mahmoud Hamza of the 444^th Brigade and Abdelsalam Zoubi of the 111^th Brigade have emerged as prominent figures within the Libyan power structure. Serving respectively as Director of the Military Intelligence Department and Deputy Defence Minister, Hamza and Zoubi play a pivotal role in Prime Minister Dbeibah’s long-term strategy to retain power amid mounting political and military changes.

Nevertheless, the persistent tension between the centrifugal dynamics underpinning militia rule and the centralisation efforts promoted by Dbeibah threatens to further destabilise the capital. Following the clashes with the SSA, military operations were launched against the Special Deterrence Forces (SDF), another influential militia headquartered at Mitiga Airport. but failed to deliver a swift victory for the Prime Minister.

This setback compelled the GNU to announce a fragile ceasefire in Tripoli, thereby eroding support, including among some of its own allies. In parallel, public protests (promptly suppressed by security and military forces), were accompanied by a rare public rebuke from the Presidency Council (PC), which had hitherto aligned itself with Dbeibah in navigating the Libyan quagmire.

It remains unclear whether this latest turn of events in Tripoli will mark the end of Prime Minister Dbeibah’s political trajectory. Much will depend not only on the decisions taken by domestic actors, including the LNA, that is reportedly mobilising and redeploying military assets westward in response to the current vacuum, but also on the positions adopted by foreign stakeholders. Türkiye, which has thus far supported Dbeibah and his allies, is likely to play a pivotal role. Having halted General Khalifa Haftar’s advance at the gates of Tripoli in 2019, Ankara may now consider alternative alignments, particularly in light of its recent efforts to cultivate ties with the eastern camp as part of a broader strategic recalibration.