Monthly Journal
September 2025
International Press Review
The most relevant events of the area through international sources
Serbia showcases new weapons at massive military parade
Euronews
Serbia held its largest military parade since decades, with 10.000 troops, tanks, missile systems and fighter jets. The parade marked the Day of Serb Unity, Freedom and the National Flag. The event highlighted Serbia’s bid to balance EU aspirations with arms deals spanning France, China, Israel, the UAE and Russia. President Vucic said the parade showed Serbia’s ability to defend its sovereignty and deter aggression, while critics saw it as a display to bolster his rule amidst students’ protests. Foreign weapons showed included: CH-92A drones, HQ-22 SAMs, HQ-17AE short-range AD systems (PRC); Hermes 900 drones, PULS rocket launchers (IL); Rafale fighters (FR); Pegasus UAVs (UAE). Local systems were NORA B-52 NG howitzer, TSMB 203 mm heavy mortar, Tamnava and Šumadija rocket launchers, Miloš combat robot.
Belgrade in talks with Rosatom for its first nuclear power plant
Serbia Energy
Serbia opened formal talks with Russia’s state-owned Rosatom on building its first nuclear power plant, the Serbian Ambassador to Moscow announced, citing the country’s urgent need for new electricity sources. The move followed the Serbian parliament’s decision, in November 2024, to lift a ban on nuclear construction imposed in 1989 after the disaster of Chernobyl. Rising demand projections, with consumption expected to quadruple by 2050, prompted the policy shift. Talks with Moscow are set to last one to two years, after which construction could start, possibly financed by a Russian state loan. However, Belgrade is assessing several potential other partners, including South Korea, France and China.
Romania plans to produce drones with Ukraine
Reuters
Romania aims to start producing defensive drones with Ukraine for its own use and for EU and NATO allies, Foreign Minister Oana Toiu said. Talks with Kyiv began before recent airspace incursions blamed on Russia. Toiu stressed the need to strengthen air defence on NATO’s eastern flank and said partnerships could make production faster. Her comments came during the UN General Assembly and amidst regional tensions, as Estonia accused Russia of airspace violations, NATO jets downed drones over Poland, and Romania nearly engaged one that entered its airspace.
Extremists trained in Serbia to fuel unrest in Moldova
N1
Moldovan authorities carried out 250 raids and detained dozens in an investigation into an alleged Russia-backed plot to spark mass unrest and destabilise the country ahead of key parliamentary elections, then won by the pro-EU front. Police said the operation targeted over 100 people in several locations and that the plan was coordinated from Russia through criminal networks. Organised crime prosecutor Victor Furtuna said 74 suspects aged 19 to 45 were held for up to 72 hours. Most had repeatedly travelled to Serbia, where they were reportedly trained. Police chief Viorel Cernauteanu said some believed they were on pilgrimages and only later joined training.
NATO’S DSG Shekerinska promises commitment to stability of Bosnia
Sarajevo Times
NATO reaffirmed its commitment to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and constitutional order during Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska’s visit to Sarajevo, vowing not to allow any security vacuum. Shekerinska urged all political leaders to act constructively, respect the rule of law and the court verdict against former Republika Srpska president Milorad Dodik, and support the country’s reform path. In an interview with BHRT, she said her meetings showed broad consensus that deeper cooperation with NATO was essential for Bosnia’s stability and future security.
Serbia split between students and Vucic
Serbian Monitor
As student protests continue, and while the authorities organised counter-rallies in support of President Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia appears more divided than ever. A survey by New Serbian Political Thought (NSPM) found that 38,9% of citizens backed the students and other demonstrators, while 36,3% opposed them. Asked how they would vote if elections were held next week, 33,2% supported the current government, 41,6% opposed it and 25,2% were undecided. Excluding undecided voters, support stood at 44,3% for the government and 55,7% against.
Moscow accuses Brussels to orchestrate protests in Serbia
Türkiye Today
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) accused the European Union of trying to fuel unrest in Serbia to bring a pro-Brussels government to power in Belgrade. It claimed EU officials aimed to use the 1st of November anniversary of tragic events in Novi Sad, which first triggered protests, to reignite demonstrations and relied on supposedly independent media to spread their message. The SVR argued the plan for a “colour revolution” had faltered because of strong patriotic feeling and Serbia’s historical memory. The allegations came amid deep political tensions. On 13 September, President Aleksandar Vučić said the attempted “revolution” had failed and urged national reconciliation.
Washington suspends strategic dialogue with Kosovo
Anadolu
The United States indefinitely suspended its planned strategic dialogue with Kosovo, historically the Balkan country closer to Washington, citing actions by Kurti’s caretaker government that had heightened tensions and undermined stability. In a statement, the US Embassy in Pristina stressed that despite the pause, Washington remained committed to shared interests with the people of Kosovo and to peace and stability as the basis for economic growth. The embassy said moves and rhetoric from caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti had jeopardised years of progress and created an unsuitable climate for partnership.
NATO reaffirms support to EUFOR mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina
N1
NATO reaffirmed full support for the EUFOR Althea mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina, stressing its commitment to extending the mandate and preventing any security vacuum. The statement followed comments by former Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik, who sought Moscow’s help to block the mission’s renewal and back a controversial referendum on his role. NATO underlined its backing for Bosnia’s sovereignty and institutions.
Support for EU massively drops in Serbia
BNE Intellinews
Support for European Union membership in Serbia fell to the lowest level in the Western Balkans, a Eurobarometer survey released on the 2nd of September showed, reflecting strained ties amid stalled accession talks and closer links with Russia and China. Only 33% of Serbians backed joining the EU, compared with 91% in Albania and 69% in North Macedonia. Just 38% viewed the EU positively, the region’s lowest figure. Serbia, which began accession talks in 2014, had not opened a new chapter in four years as Brussels pressed for rule-of-law reforms and progress on normalising relations with Kosovo. Despite tensions, the EU remains Serbia’s main trade and investment partner.
New wiretapping scandal shakes North Macedonia
Balkan Insight
Currently ruling DPMNE party had been surveilled by state security agencies while in opposition. The Organised Crime Prosecution confirmed it had received reports from the National Security Agency (ANB) in early August alleging wrongdoing and had immediately opened a case, with a pre-investigation under way. Prime Minister Mickoski, speaking at an ANB anniversary event, claimed both the Intelligence Agency (AR/AZ) and ANB had targeted his party, himself, journalists and businessmen. ANB head Bojan Hristovski, appointed last October, publicly backed the prime minister’s accusations.
The Insight Angle
Adnan Ćerimagić
Adnan Ćerimagić is Senior Analyst at the European Stability Initiative (ESI), one of the leading think tanks in Europe, specialising in EU policy towards the Western Balkans. Recognised as one of the most authoritative political analysts on Bosnia-Herzegovina and the region, he is a frequent voice in European debates and media. He previously worked for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Sarajevo and Brussels. His career includes experiences at the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee and the ETC for Human Rights and Democracy in Graz. Based in Berlin, he also serves on the advisory boards of the International Institute for Peace in Vienna and the International Advisory Board.
Bosnia and Herzegovina looks set for major destabilization this autumn, with the Bosnian Serb referendum on Dodik’s role, the clash with the authority of HR Schmidt and the presidential elections in the RS, that Dodik urged people to boycott. How worried are you about the country’s future, starting with this referendum? Is Bosnia heading towards something more serious than a political and institutional crisis?
Bosnia and Herzegovina has faced a grave political, legal and institutional crisis since the final verdict against Milorad Dodik in August 2025, though not the escalation seen in February 2025 when, after the first instance ruling, Dodik’s supporters swiftly carried out unconstitutional acts and seriously risked armed conflict between state and entity security agencies.
Since the second-instance verdict, Dodik and his supporters have continued to publicly claim he remains president, yet they have so far walked a careful line to avoid major escalation or direct confrontation. Dodik is making use of all available legal means, including a possibility to replace his prison sentence with a fine. At the same time, he and his allies have even signalled a readiness to participate in early elections which, if and once implemented, would see a new president replacing Dodik.
Is there a realistic way out of the crisis around the RS leadership? How can Bosnia return a constitutional government in Banja Luka and a legitimate president, given Dodik’s stance and the Bosnian Serb leadership’s conflictual position?
The only solution is legal: Dodik must step down and early elections on the 23rd of November must be held and implemented. Any boycott or parallel structures would deepen the crisis.
Unlike in February, Dodik now signals he might comply, calculating that defiance could isolate him, push Republika Srpska into legal chaos, and weaken his clique’s grip on the party and public resources. His calculation: if he respects the verdict, Dodik may retain influence from behind the scenes, avoiding isolation and further sanctions.
Russia is once again meddling in Bosnia’s internal affairs, openly backing Dodik and the RS referendum. Does this point to a deliberate Kremlin strategy to destabilize Bosnia and the wider Balkans to distract Europe from the war in Ukraine?
Russia and Dodik use each other. Moscow seeks influence in EU’s and NATO’s neighbourhood, Dodik leverage with the West, mainly through the threats of chaos and a Russian veto on EUFOR ALTHEA’s military mission mandate in the UN Security Council.
He publicly frames his goal as staying president and ending international oversight, but his strategy seems to be more tactical: to preserve control over his party and its central role in Republika Srpska’s government, and also to secure sanctions relief for himself and his family, and to negotiate from a position of apparent strength. The referendum talk fits this pattern of testing loyalty and threatening instability without necessarily acting.
Moscow benefits as it gains an ally disrupting Bosnia and distracting Europe while the war in Ukraine continues. Dodik benefits as Russian backing gives weight to his defiance. Yet the risk for Dodik is that openly relying on Moscow and escalating beyond rhetoric could trigger further isolation, stronger Western unity and further criminal charges.
Are Western powers, especially the EU but also NATO, doing enough to keep the situation under control in BiH? If not, what concrete steps should be taken now to prevent a dangerous escalation this autumn?
Escalation cannot be ruled out, particularly if Dodik receives backing from Serbia’s president Aleksandar Vučić. Yet, to the surprise of many, Western unity is stronger now than in February.
The United States has taken the lead in managing the immediate crisis, making clear to Dodik that the verdict must be implemented and warning him against defiance. The European Union, however, must assume responsibility for long-term stability: anchoring Bosnia more firmly on the accession path, phasing out the Dayton instruments, and guaranteeing security through EU and NATO integration. Christian Schmidt’s revival of the Bonn powers has come at a price, as enforcing them demands greater diplomatic, financial and even military resources. Only credible EU commitments and deeper integration can alter political incentives.
For now, Western actors should insist on early elections in November, reject any referendums or parallel structures, and prepare sanctions against those undermining state institutions. This would contain Dodik’s manoeuvres and demonstrate that neither Moscow nor local strongmen can endanger European peace and stability.
The Key Story
Strategic trends
Russia uses Dodik to further destabilise Bosnia and Herzegovina
In what appeared to have been a renewed bid to apply pressure on the Balkans and, quite possibly, to unsettle the wider region in pursuit of its own strategic ambitions, Russia once more declared its support for the removed Bosnian Serb president Milorad Dodik in September. The step carried the risk of reigniting tensions across an area already marked by fragile post-war stability and could have opened the way to fresh political turbulence at a moment of growing international uncertainty.
The move seemed deliberately aimed at shaping the already fragile political balance in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Dodik’s effective removal had further strained relations between the country’s entities and intensified long-standing disputes over sovereignty and the rule of law.
During his tenure as president of Republika Srpska, Dodik had repeatedly threatened the entity’s secession from Bosnia and persistently defied the authority of the international High Representative, Christian Schmidt. He was later put on trial for his continued defiance of the international overseer and declared guilty. Despite being removed from office, Dodik went on acting as Republika Srpska’s president, preserving his influence and openly challenging the decision that barred him. The central authorities scheduled an election to choose his successor for November, yet Dodik urged a boycott of the vote, while at the same time negotiating for a successor of his own liking. In addition, lawmakers in Republika Srpska approved plans to stage a referendum on his removal beforehand, setting the ballot for 25 October.
By that stage, Dodik had already secured political backing from Viktor Orbán’s Hungary and Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbia, reinforcing his position and adding to the mounting tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But Russia represents the strongest possible ally for Dodik.
And Moscow did not fail to assist its ally, at least on paper, reaffirming full support for Dodik after the Bosnian Serb leader travelled to Russia to meet Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the beginning of September. The visit seemed intended to bolster Dodik’s claim to legitimacy and to gauge backing for his defiance, while at the same time intensifying political uncertainty in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Speaking at a joint press conference, Lavrov stated that the international community, and in particular Christian Schmidt, had gone beyond its mandate. He maintained that Schmidt lacked authorisation from the UN Security Council yet was acting on Western instructions to assume powers not lawfully his. Moscow characterised the recent developments in Bosnia as a breach of the 1995 Dayton Accords, which had brought an end to the Bosnian war and set the framework for the country’s two entities and three constituent peoples. Lavrov went further, asserting that Russia firmly condemned efforts to remove Serb leaders through what it regarded as fabricated legal proceedings.
Lavrov stated that Bosnia and Herzegovina was facing its deepest political crisis in three decades, one that could destabilise the entire Balkan region. Dodik, in turn, expressed gratitude to Moscow for what he described as Russia’s accurate understanding of the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, its defence of international law, and its support for the framework established by the Dayton Agreement.
The meeting between Lavrov and Dodik could be understood as a sign of Moscow’s renewed effort to unsettle the Balkans, likely forming part of a wider campaign to divert Europe’s attention from the war in Ukraine. Lavrov warned that weakening the fragile consensus sustaining Bosnia and Herzegovina amounted to an open invitation to renewed conflict in the region. He also commended Milorad Dodik for organizing the October referendum in Republika Srpska – claiming that Western powers resisted such votes, referring to the disputed Crimean referendum as an example he considered transparent.
For years, the Kremlin had relied on its links with Republika Srpska to project influence across the Balkans, deepen Europe’s internal divisions, and undermine the US-brokered Dayton Accords, increasing the risk of fresh instability in an already fragile post-war landscape. Moscow’s backing for Dodik appeared part of a broader strategy to challenge Western authority and exploit tensions inside Bosnia and Herzegovina during a moment of heightened geopolitical pressures.
However, the situation could also have turned the other way, as Dodik’s party, the SNSD, raised the prospect of taking part in the presidential elections at the end of September, a sign that Dodik’s long-dominant era might have been nearing its end, despite Moscow’s continued pressure.
Further News and Views
Stalemate in Kosovo continues with local elections looming
Sources: Bloomberg, Balkan Insight, Gazeta Express
Kosovo’s Constitutional Court prolonged the current political deadlock by barring lawmakers from continuing parliamentary work, leaving the country unable to form a government seven months after elections.
The judges in Pristina ruled that the assembly’s inaugural session had not been properly adjourned when lawmakers refused to elect an ethnic Serb as deputy speaker, a step required before a cabinet could be appointed. The decision upheld a complaint from Serb List, the party representing Kosovo’s Serb minority, after the speaker declared the chamber constituted despite the vacant post. Until all seats reserved for minorities are filled, parliament could not be fully formed.
The freeze, first imposed in early September, deepened the crisis that began on the 15th of April with the failure to inaugurate parliament and form a new government. Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s Self-Determination party had criticised the suspension, saying it paralysed the political institutions.
Meanwhile, Kosovo is preparing for the local elections set for 12 October, including tense contests in the Serb-dominated north. More than 200 mayoral candidates and over 5.400 council hopefuls entered the race amid lingering post-election disputes.
US sanction against Serbian energy giant NIS to become effective
Sources: European Western Balkans, CEE Energy News, Balkan Insight
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced the United States had delayed sanctions against the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) for only four more days, with full enforcement set to begin now in October. Radio-Television of Serbia later reported that the deadline had been extended until 8–9 October.
NIS was placed on the US sanctions list early this year because of its Russian majority ownership, a stake dating back to 2008. Moscow has refused to reduce its holding to help Serbia avoid penalties.
Since January, Washington’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has issued several temporary licenses postponing the measures, but Vucic warned that Serbia remained collateral damage of strained ties between the West and Russia. He cautioned that sanctions would disrupt banking operations, salary payments and other transactions for NIS.
NIS said it held sufficient crude reserves and continued to work with the US Treasury and its shareholders to secure license extensions and removal from the sanctions list. It insisted it complied with Serbian and international law and that its activities had not prompted the restrictions, which now threatened 13.000 jobs. Croatia’s Adriatic Oil Pipeline (Janaf), NIS’s main supplier, also warned of heavy losses if sanctions were enforced. Janaf stated it had secured a license to maintain oil transport until October and planned, with Croatian government backing, to request a further OFAC extension.
EU - NATO
China threatens EU position in the Balkans
Source: Wiiw
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, the Bertelsmann Stiftung and the European Centre for International Political Economy developed a new geo-economic interconnectivity index (GEOII) to assess the European Union’s position in a changing global landscape.
The findings showed that the EU remained the strongest player in its neighbourhood across trade, finance and politics but faced a mounting challenge, above all from China. Beijing had significantly expanded its influence through strategic partnerships, infrastructure investment and targeted economic engagement, with Serbia and Montenegro emerging as key footholds. While Russia once held a strong position in parts of Eastern Europe, its influence collapsed after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, leaving it the clear loser in the EU’s eastern neighbourhood.
However, the study warned that slow and uncertain EU enlargement, political complacency in Western Europe and China’s growing assertiveness threatened the bloc’s long-term leverage, particularly in the Western Balkans.
ECONOMICS
Slighter slower growth expected in the Balkan region
Source: EBRD
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecast growth of 3,1% across its regions in 2025, rising to 3,3% in 2026, in its latest Regional Economic Prospects report.
The study, titled Under Pressure, reflected challenges from persistent geopolitical tensions, growing competition from China in export markets and limited fiscal space.
In the Western Balkans, growth was expected at 2,7% in 2025 and 3,2% in 2026, revised down due to slower expansion in advanced European economies and weaker construction and investment in Serbia.
In Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, growth was projected at 3,0% in 2025 and 4,4% in 2026, with Ukraine’s 2025 outlook cut as the effects of Russia’s war were worsened by poor harvests.
Stefano Giantin
Journalist based in the Balkans since 2005, he covers Central- and Eastern Europe for a wide range of media outlets, including the Italian national news agency ANSA, and the dailies La Stampa and Il Piccolo.
